World War III, Nuclear Energy, Socialists Running New York
143: The Weekly Selection
Introduction
Investors,
Welcome back to another iteration of ‘The Weekly Selection’, where I cover my thoughts on the market, what’s upcoming and some other little nuggets for your enjoyment.
Check out the latest Podcast at the link below, as well as some other socials:
Broad Overview
Last Week brought a mélange of news with absolutely 0 impact on financial markets. From Mondays open to the close on Friday the SP500 saw a 3.36% rise in price, furthering the notion that regardless of what the world is throwing at us, there is little to no sign of slowdown.
Interestingly, the talking heads on social media are still spewing the same old nonsense about what’s to come, and the long term impacts of the news, while entirely missing the move and all the opportunity within it. This is becoming more and more prevalent as the market grinds higher into all time highs. Remember that bear markets do not make all time highs.
Above we can see the look of the market from a price perspective. If anyone remembers, this is familiar as a very similar look occurred in 2023. See below:
Note the small consolidation under the pivot, and then strong push through igniting a bullish trend that is still running to this day. Think of where the world was then, and what was driving the market. Ukraine/Russia invasion was still fresh, deterioration in the middle east was apparent, administration concerns were frothing with Joe Biden coming under extreme fire for doing nothing in his term, and China/Taiwan invasion concerns mounted. Yet still, the market raged on.
Now compare that to today: new administration concerns, tariff mania, Middle East unrest, Russia/Ukraine, and new domestic concerns such as civil unrest and deportation. Do we believe the concerns of today to be much different from that of times past? In my opinion the answer is no, and since we havnt’t seen price reflect anything else for years, I do not think we will see a slowdown anytime soon.
Less prevalent in the news cycle this week, but still notable was the announcement of an imminent approval of funds for nuclear energy here in the States. If you’re a following of this publication for the last couple years, you know this trade is one of my most prolific, as I believe there to be a high probability the government steps in to fund independent power producers and R&D on new energy technologies to expedite the rollout of energy grid extensions to help quell the impending demand from AI.
Upcoming Opportunity
IPO trading has seen a resurgence in popularity in recent months, as speculation returns to the market under the realization that we are going higher. My list is as follows:
CRWV AIRO HNGE CRCL CHYM ALAB TEM SAIL
Above is AIRO, a drone and related systems IPO. With the way warfare has evolved in recent years, I see more and more reason to be bullish on drones, since we know that military development and government expenditure is usually a precursor to civilian application. Names like AIRO and the upcoming Anduril IPO are notable examples of companies at the forefront of the technology.
Nuclear Energy/Electricity still remains my largest position and best thesis. I like VST GEV PSIX VRT SMR OKLO CEG, with an emphasis on VST PSIX and OKLO.
Above is OKLO, the more speculative approach to this trade, retesting the previous all time highs. After a 1000% run from lows last year, seeing longer consolidations here is not unwelcome or unwarranted.
Datacenters see strong movement of recent, with the IPO of CRWV setting up an opportunity for peers in the space. Below is $NBIS, a spin off from previous Russian company Yandex:
Tight action near post spin off highs, very difficult to enter but looking like a good setup.
Bitcoin looking to make its move to highs here, with a nice bullflag below the pivot. In standard BTC fashion, we see overshooting of the pivot to start the flag, however with some more sideways and tightening this can make its next leg higher, see below:
Over the last couple years I have traded a number of BTC and related names, and I do think just trading the spot BTC or IBIT is the best way to get exposure to the “sector?”. Not really sure how to best define what crypto is.
Anyway, thats going to do it for this week. The last month has been weird for entries, but my PNL is the best its been this year, so I think I will remain bullish as ive been, continue buying where the obvious value is for the changing world, and ride the good stuff till the wheels fall off.
Remember to checkout my latest article here, on the way market bottoms tend to produce similar individual leadership setups.
