The Weekly Selection: 5/11/25
137: The Biggest Deals You've Ever Seen
Investors,
Welcome back to another iteration of ‘The Weekly Selection’, where I cover my thoughts on the market, what’s upcoming and some other little nuggets for your enjoyment.
Check out the latest Podcast at the link below, as well as some other socials:
Indices
Last week saw flat action as the market digested the large run from early last month to now. Trump softening on foreign policy warranted the run, however such volatility must contract at some point, so this didn’t take me by too much of a surprise.
The environment for swing trading has improved drastically, diverging away from the broad markets participation. Individual names are running, especially those that handled the drawdown well.
I’m sure I’ve mentioned it on this newsletter before, but for the sake of conversation I’ll cover it once more. Stocks that remain flat or up while the index it is a component of is down, is relative strength. Regardless of how the price action looks, we must consider these names for entry as they have a tremendous history of outperforming when the market turns up. From March 13th to April 7th, the primary indexes made significantly lower lows, while many individual stocks made double bottoms or higher lows.
For example, earlier this year I produced a basket of themes that I deemed outperformers under this administration regardless of economic policy changes or whatever wild action Trump had up his sleeve. These included cybersecurity, space exploration, electric utilities and deportation. Of these themes, many of the leaders like RKLB, AXON, CRWD, and GEV/VST made considerable headway by simply not following the price structure of the indexes they are apart of.
Taking a look at the index below:
Significantly lower low from March to April, now retracing back to a pivot from last year. Overall, this action is healthy as we eclipsed the mega volatility to the upside, however I think without further proper basing the market is still susceptible to downside. The bull thesis this week is the news over the last couple days about Trumps deals with China. Whether these have tangible impact at this point I do not know. Talking heads seem to believe that much of this inaction is priced in, but the same guys were freaking out when the news initially released despite having all the clues in the world it was coming, so who knows. We will have to wait till futures open in a few hours to see.
Taking a look at our uncertainty hedge, Gold Spot Futures, we can see that the nonlinear move from a few week ago is beginning to normalize, further suggestion room for indexes to run. These two items are not in perfect opposite correlation, however there is something to be said for Golds performance through market downturn. I still hold my physical position in the metal from 2023, but all my ETF/leverage has since been offloaded.
Themes Update
No parabolic trend analysis this week, as it is mothers day and I’ll be headed to spend time with family. Shout out to my mom for being my #1 subscriber after all these years, I see your stats, thank you!
Cybersecurity remains a top watch, with names like CRWD FTNT CYBR on the buy list.
CRWD actually saw a deeper pullback than indexes this week, which I think was needed as it had one of the better runs out of the April lows. Earnings still a few weeks out as well, which may provide a nice cheater low entry.
RKLB falls below previous all time high pivot price on earnings, but frankly I dont think this matters all too much. The trade for RKLB and the value prop that will justify the price is the successful launch of the neutron rocket platform, with a significantly higher payload capacity than their other offerings. Any delay here will kill the trade, not the earnings reports, in my opinion. SATL from the group is also a great looking chart.
AXON from the personal defense/homeland security basket puts in a triple top. This doesnt look great obviously, but the fact that its pushing into all time highs signifies the strength and deems it worthy of keeping an eye on.
TSLA makes a nice bottom and move out into a run, despite being very difficult to enter I do like this name. Hoping to see a further thrust upwards and away from the base to utilize SMA pullback entry strategies to get in.
GEV is a behemoth well into the making. Pullbacks will be bought on this, as it becomes more apparent everyday how important electric utilities will be on the world moving forward with the development of AI showing no signs of slowdown. I have multiple friends across the industry, and I have heard not a single report of projects being cancelled despite all the uncertainty surrounding the new administration. Bullish.
Thats all I have for you this week!
Happy Mothers day to all the moms out there!
