The Weekly Selection

131: Analysis + Capital + Execution

Mar 23, 2025

Introduction

Investors,

Welcome back to another iteration of ‘The Weekly Selection’, where I cover my thoughts on the market, what’s upcoming and some other little nuggets for your enjoyment.

Before we begin, take a look at the recent articles posted last week:

The Vaccine Frontier

Gotta Catch Em’ All!

These are the most recent deep dive research pieces from SEBS research. Additionally, check out the latest Podcast at the link below, as well as some other socials:

Indices

As we continue to trade down after a slew of global policy conflicts, the strength in some key names is beginning to show. What I am looking for here are stocks less impacted by economic policy changes and anything showing relative strength vs the rest of the market. Most notably has been energy names, which started to slide before the broad market did, and seemingly put in a bottom before the market as well.

SPY 0.00%↑ is currently testing the underside of the previous long term pivot. A failure to reclaim and hold this on volume would spell trouble in the near term without question. For example, checkout TSLA 0.00%↑ testing the underside of its pivot a few weeks back. Also, check out the wicking to the upside here, not great.

Gold continues to grind higher, no change in the thesis there but will keep it updated as I do still have a position.

QQQ has a significantly worse look than SPY. the bear flag look after a double top is reminiscent of CELH recently, where in early 2024 we saw a double top and subsequent bear flags on the way down.

The S5FI is equally as grim, with 33% of stocks in the SP500 above their 50day sma. Not usually something I track, but seemed worthwhile to get data on underlying technical standing. Sometimes when I check this the market is ripping but the reading is lower than 50%. To me, this indicates a focused market. Currently, the market selling off and seeing this reading indicates that this selling is not focused, and it is being felt across the board.

Parabolic Trend Analysis

Parabolic Trend Analysis: Redfin ($RDFN):

Redfin was one of the key beneficiaries from the Covid pandemic. Their brokerage tools and platform allowed both consumers and sellers to get a better grasp on a rapidly changing homebuying experience and ecosystem. The run was primarily driven by spending tailwinds, low rates, and a shifting workplace culture, allowing consumers to move from big cities to homes in the suburbs.

Technically speaking, this run sucked. There were hardly any actionable setups, the price action was often weak on the way up making holding difficult through SMA crossbacks, and the one good run only came on a frozen rope with no setup prior. Very difficult to enter this at any part of the run.

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