The Weekly Selection: 11/03/2024

Vol. 112: Red Sweep or Blue Sea?

Nov 03, 2024

Investors,

Welcome back to another iteration of ‘The Weekly Selection’, where I cover my thoughts on the market, what’s upcoming and some other little nuggets for your enjoyment.

Before we begin, get active on the rest of my socials:

SOCIALS

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

This week, the united states undergoes one of its most important events, the presidential election. Regardless of your opinions on politics, policy, candidates or various cultural ideals, this event should be treated with importance.

Voting is an incredible right and responsibility in the United States, one that few around the world fully share. The power to elect leaders is seldom guaranteed elsewhere, leaving many people with little voice to convey their opinions. By voting, Americans have the opportunity to shape the future and uphold the principles of freedom and representation that form the foundation of the United States.

I try and keep my personal politics out of my writing, as I think to be a proper market participant I need to be unbiased and remain fluid in the event of an opposing view controlling the narrative for extended periods of time.

With that said, get out and vote. It is my opinion that abstaining from casting a vote is a disservice to your nation that scratched, clawed, and then fought for the right to do so.

Anyway, back to the work at hand.

Indices

SPY 0.00%↑ Up first. After trading within the range for a few days, we saw selling into the end of the week. Historically, leading up to the election the market has followed this path the last 4 cycles. Imo, this is like any other catalyst. We see profit takers into the event, as it represents a risk. Then after a brief spout of volatility, the trend that existed before has historically been shown to continue.

GLD 0.00%↑ Gold markets also saw selling into the election week, although the pressure to the downside from the weeks open was less significant than most markets. This is reasonable action, as gold price usually represents uncertainty, which there is much of going into an important election.

XLY 0.00%↑ is the consumer discretionary ETF (Think wants, not needs). As we can observe, the action is healthier here than in most other sectors of the market. This is mostly due to strong earnings within the sector, driving peers higher on expected performance.

SQ 0.00%↑ 1100% run back in 2018. As annotated, Square is a fintech company that provides payment and processing for businesses. Their most notable product, Cash App, is similar to Venmo or Zelle. During this run, there really wasnt anything that stood out besides huge user growth development as pay apps really took off.

*This portion of the newsletter takes considerable time in researching the stocks and why they ran. If you enjoyed, consider liking this post and sharing with a friend.*

Charts

Given that this week is election week, and id imagine this brings quite a bit of volatility, im going to leave you all with tons of ideas to look at.

IN THEMES

SEMICONDUCTORS are currently an ‘IN’ Theme, but theres some weakness brewing.

TSM 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ ASML 0.00%↑

PLANES AND BOATS have seen sizeable runs in the last few weeks. I personally don’t trade these industries, but they are definitely an in theme. My reasoning for not trading them is poor performance trying them in the past as they are a finicky group to get right.

AAL 0.00%↑ UAL 0.00%↑ NCLH 0.00%↑ RCL 0.00%↑

OUT THEMES

OIL was a potential theme a few weeks ago with Israel mounting attacks on Iran. Given that Iran is a large producer of oil, I expected there to be a rotation into energy. This was not the case as they announced they wouldn’t be targeting any oil fields.

XOM 0.00%↑ COP 0.00%↑ CVX 0.00%↑ XLE 0.00%↑

That’s all for this week! don’t forget to like and share.