The Weekly Selection: 06/08/2025
141: So Long, Partner
Investors,
Welcome back to another iteration of ‘The Weekly Selection’, where I cover my thoughts on the market, what’s upcoming and some other little nuggets for your enjoyment.
Check out the latest Podcast at the link below, as well as some other socials:
Overview
This past week I stepped away from the desk on Thursday and Friday for a trip, and boy what convenient timing! Thursday saw Trump and Elon have a public battle on twitter, with the resulting fallout leading to a menagerie of potential shifts in the political and technological arenas.
First things first I think this shifts Trumps involvement in Elon-Related Projects. Previously, I had a shtick that “Elon is going to Mars” as one of my 2025 investment predictions. This encompassed space and space exploration, satellite technology and all related fields. With Elon out of the picture the question is now raised whether or not Trump continues to fund and push for space exploration, or drops it all together.
If he decides to drop the ball altogether, I will likely exit my RKLB 0.00%↑ position as one of the core points to that thesis was spillover from Trump helping Elon and SpaceX. I think this is the least likely scenario, but worth noting.
In the event of a kiss and makeup, were back to business as usual. As we now know, Trump always swings big and hits small, so it seems probable he reels back his comments about Elon and there is some common ground between the two former friends.
The last scenario is no makeup, but continued funding of space and related projects, in which positions like SpaceX hurt, and RocketLab, ASTS and RDW all benefit from even more funding that Elon would have gotten. For those curious, TSLA 0.00%↑ (adjacent but best way to gauge Elon’s popularity in public markets) was down 15% last week.
Quick chart to visualize: TSLA 0.00%↑ slide after false breakout and Trump fallout.
News cycle was otherwise fairly slow, most discussions I participated in alluded to the idea that Trump is simply going to outpace the debt growth with innovation and earnings, rather than address the monster itself. To be quite honest, Ive given this a fair amount of thought recently, and I did believe DOGE and team would have worked to at least make some kind of a dent in federal spending. This was not the case, and now it seems quite possible this debt rocket is on a parabolic trend that simply will not slow down until explosion.
Indices
Taking a look at broad performance last week, we see fairly standard price action. The week opened in the range, and close above, with only one slide on Thursday. This indicates the Elon/Trump debacle was an isolated incident.
As we approach all time highs once again, the question is raised whether or not this price is deserved. I refer back to the age old quote: “The market can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent”. I will continue to let price action dictate my trading book, as it has proven to be profitable despite the noise. Also earnings have been good so no worries there.
Upcoming Opportunity
This week sees significant opportunity across the board. The market pushes, and so do many of the top groups and themes. Most notably are the “SP500 inclusion names”. Many of which ran into the inclusion date (Friday), and then faded in after hours when they were not included. These include HOOD 0.00%↑ APP 0.00%↑ IBKR 0.00%↑ and VRT 0.00%↑. Despite not being included, these are all tremendous businesses, and I would anticipate further volatility and opportunity this upcoming week. I’ve been trying to get into HOOD for quite some time now, and I think this sell may present that opportunity.
Additionally, the space trade is heating up, with ASTS putting in a monster week, RKLB pushing and RDW making a return from the grave.
ASTS 0.00%↑ above with a huge range, coming in at almost one year. Whats impressive here is the ability for it to hold the high volume all the way throughout, and now blasting on much higher volume. I’m hesitant to add in this range, but in the event it goes for the highs I may take a swing.
Nuclear/SMR setting up tremendously. SMR 0.00%↑ putting in a high tight flag with massive volume and a 100% move in 30 days or less. I see commentary about what constitutes a high tight flag, and this is it.
FTNT 0.00%↑ from cybersecurity group looks primed. I’ve been trying to get exposure to this group for a while as well, and while this isn’t the leadership name, it is in its niche.
For those who are still here, be on the lookout later this week for a broad market structure analysis. I will be covering my price action cheat sheet that delves into low structure, relative strength, and what kind of setups tend to appear in various broad market structures.
Thanks for reading!
Enjoy the rest of my socials here and be sure to share this post if you enjoyed:
