Charts, Trades, and Analysis: 1/12/24
121: Bottoms Up
Investors,
Welcome back to another iteration of ‘The Weekly Selection’, where I cover my thoughts on the market, what’s upcoming and some other little nuggets for your enjoyment.
Before we begin, take a look at ONON DEEP DIVE RESEARCH posted last week. This is the first of many Thursday articles, so you’ll want to tune in to your inbox then to keep up.
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Indices
As I’m sure everyone has seen on social media, the market is in a bit of a tizzy. economic policy, political turmoil prior to inauguration, and $150B in fire damages in Los Angeles are the primary culprits, with valuation concerns of major players coming back adding fuel to the flames.
Observing the broad market price structure, we can see that the action is constructive in the selloff, with a number of slightly lower lows getting put in from the initial sell on 12/18. I would like to see this remain the case, with maybe one more marginal low, or double bottom from here.
I have been staunch on the idea of Trump not wanting to inherit a market at all time highs, and he’s obviously seeing to that with wild claims of purchasing Greenland and general pot-stirring in classic Trump fashion.
With all this uncertainty, this presents an interesting opportunity for gold. Gold is the hedge to pandemonium, so if this continues, especially now with the fires in California, we may see a continuation move there.
XLE 0.00%↑ energy has seen a notable bounce over the last couple weeks, as concerns of inflation come back into play. whether this persists is uncertain, but its worth keeping an eye on.
Parabolic Trend Analysis
CAVA 0.00%↑ has seen quite a run over the last year. Their market presence vs Chipotle CMG 0.00%↑ is accelerating, share offerings have assisted in getting more stores out there, and consumer hype over the brand have all aided in price growth.
Additionally, their robust management team has been touted on wall street as one of the best, instilling institutional interest and involvement. Despite a high valuation and multiple on most metrics, people continue to flood the bid in expectation of continued hyper growth.
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Upcoming Themes
The amount of themes is drying up as the market sells off, however a focused market has never deterred great moves from occurring. Lets dive into some of what we’re watching for the week.
INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS: VST 0.00%↑ CEG 0.00%↑ TLN 0.00%↑ GEV 0.00%↑
VST 0.00%↑ is the top look, with a nice thrust up back to ATH to truly show the relative strength of the group. This is a fundamentally back theme with AI power demand rolling in, expect a deep research piece Thursday covering this topic.
RETAIL: RL 0.00%↑ ANF 0.00%↑
While a pretty small group, retail is shaping up with ANF 0.00%↑ giving a best in class weekly look. COST 0.00%↑ very similar a couple years ago, has doubled since. ANF re-raised guide this last fall, and after the holiday season it looks like that may have come to fruition and then some.
SMR NUCLEAR: SMR 0.00%↑ OKLO 0.00%↑ NNE 0.00%↑
The SMR group is holding up moderately well, with the last part of the week bringing a pullback to the 10sma on the daily.
ROCKETS AND SATELLITES: RKLB 0.00%↑ RDW 0.00%↑ GSAT 0.00%↑ DXYZ 0.00%↑
RKLB 0.00%↑ widening at ATH, but still maintaining a constructive uptrend. Efforts at the SMAs have been wonderful.
Thats all for this week! Check out the ONON research piece from last week HERE, and be on the lookout for another article this Thursday.